Some very interesting moments here, current state of affairs:
Revenue:
RED5 March AISC = $1,926/oz
SLR March AISC = $1,522/oz
(each contributing ~50% of production so weighted average AISC around $1,750/oz)
~450koz production per year
Hedging 290koz @$2,769/oz (about 15-20% of production over next few years)
82koz @ ($2,769 - $1,750)) = ~$82m
(445-82koz) @ ($3,500 - $1,750) = $635m (todays gold price, yet to see management guidance on production?)
Total = $717m
to get to FCF maybe another $80m of spend on growth capex?
Liquid assets:
Cash and bullion $453.7m
(less) Debt $92.9m
(plus) RED shares held $156.6m
Total = $517.4m
EV = $2.72b - $517.4m = $2.2b (at $0.405 price)
So correct my math please, but this stock is trading for a ~3.06x EV/EBITDA ratio... Not sure what has happened recently with the stock price but I certainly was expecting post-merger for it to go upwards not downwards so as long as I remain confused by the markets valuation I will continue holding the stock. Middle column highly relevant from page 8 of market annoucement on 9th April.
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- Ann: Restructured Finance Facility and June Quarter Results
Ann: Restructured Finance Facility and June Quarter Results, page-20
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.270 | 9236 | 1 |
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