I personally don't think spot prices are a reflection of potential long term prices for rare earths as one diversifies supply away from China. China controls the rare earths market and has used that control as a political weapon - ask Japan. As new supply comes onboard and as governments move away from Chinese supply for geo-political, sovereign, resource security and diversification expansion in the industries critical minerals play a part in, current spot prices will be seen for what they are (interference of market forces by the Chinese so as to ensure downstream production of EVs and their requirements stay in China, as well as other industries asuch as semi-conductors).
Long terms trying to control critical minerals prices by interfering with market forces will fail, as countries wake up to what is actually driving the resource security of that intent -
Rising demand for responsible rare earths is not lifting prices, says Lynas | ***** NewsDrivers here are very similar to what you are seeing in the lithium space -
Post #:73514290 - it is a question now of how serious governments are in breaking China's dominance and market manipulation of prices to maintain producuction capacity of downstream activities in China.
How Japan solved its rare earth minerals dependency issue | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)The low opex cost here IMO means MEI can ride the waves of short term manipulation of prices, but it will boil down to how Capex is funded and by whom. Also Scoping Studies generally are plus or minus 50% in bedding down estimated capex/opex costs, so only a PFS (plus or minus 25% on costs/revenue) and then a DFS (plus or minus 10% on cost revenue estimates) will bed down the expected costs of production and capex requirement. However the Scoping Study is extremely positive given the low opex cost estimates here, so a lot to like here but will involve an element of risk as a first mover away from China and who is expected to wear that risk to diversify such supply sources (i.e. LYC has certainly had its own ups and downs). Just a case now of seeing how this project transcends to supply and which countries/potential offtakers are involved. Time will tell, but a good start, and a lot of water to still go under the bridge.
All IMO
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