PLS chart, page-22470

Maybe, but I was fooled, in the last quarter, by paying attention to the spot price coming out of China. The drop from Dec 2023 of $US1113 to Mar 2024 $US803, a 27.3% drop convinced me to be sceptical of the spot price. Spot prices on low volumes can be manufactured and manipulated as against prices for delivery of high volume to customers.

Remember the BMX auctions in the Dec Qtr 2022 where PLS recorded 3 spot price deliveries at over $US8,000DMT and yet recorded $US5668 in the Dec qrt.

What pricing formula PLS uses with it's off-take agreements and other deliveries partners is not as transparent as I should think.

I don't fight the trend on my hand-drawn chart. It's fact, not speculation. So I would be surprised by a trend reversal in the series 3256>2240>1113>802 back up to 1000. Especially in the environment where the US tariffs changes must be beginning to have an impact on battery and EV imports from China..I also read recently that Tesla has dropped the prices on some model for delivery into Australia by $9,500. None of which suggests a trend change turnaround.

I also don't fight the chart trend shown by other big Lith related companies like ALB , Ganfeng, SQM and Tianqi. In my view, if we are due for upward trend change in Lith prices then I think that it would be revealed in the charts for each of these companies. Yet all 4 companies are recently setting new lows on my chart below.


Only 3 weeks to go and all will be revealed. Then we can restart this conversation.

cheers Lies

PS maybe my opinion of spot prices coming out of China, being all smoke and mirrors, can be reversed if you are correct.