Its Over, page-22765

* Benign CPI numbers paved the way for a 90% imputation of a Sept rate cut, spurring a rotation out of mega techs into small caps.
* Russell2000 small caps gained +3.59% while Nasdaq fell -1.92%
IWM Stock Fund Price and Chart — AMEX:IWM — TradingView
Tesla -8.5%, NVIDIA -5.57%, AAPL -2.32%, MSFT -2.48%, Meta -4.11%
...this is probably the most stark stock heatmap in a long while
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1811490835013452126
* Precious metals shot higher on rate cut prospects, Gold surged to close at $2412, Silver at $31.37
* Commodity stocks fared well notably Lithium, Gold and Silver and to a lesser extent Oil, making them IMO great short term momentum trading plays.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 11 Jul 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	0.08%	39,753
2	S&P500	-0.88%	5,584
3	NASDAQ	-1.92%	18,288
4	DXY	-0.56%	104.46
5	US 2 YR	-2.54%	4.515
6	US 10 YR	-1.64%	4.208
7	AUD	0.26%	0.6759
8	GOLD	1.85%	$   2,415
9	SILVER	2.08%	$   31.46
10	BTC	-0.24%	$    57,322
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	2.81%
15	GDXJ	3.31%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	3.76%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	1.97%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	1.83%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	3.30%
21	SILJ	3.69%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	5.87%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	3.52%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	2.20%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	1.08%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	2.26%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	5.04%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	5.36%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	4.44%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	4.86%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	-0.40%
34	BHP	-0.55%
35	RIO	0.87%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	-1.50%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	-0.15%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	2.16%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-0.32%
40	OIL
41	XLE	1.04%
42	EXXON (XOM)	1.19%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	0.08%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	0.11%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	1.30%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	1.60%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	1.82%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	0.00%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	1.84%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	2.00%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	1.69%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	2.12%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	0.71%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	0.98%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	0.93%

Misses across the board today in CPI left US macro surprise data languishing in 'not so soft landing' territory...

Source: Bloomberg
...as inflation and growth factors have are now tumbling in a 'recession-y' kinda way...


Source: Bloomberg
...all of which prompted a surge in rate-cut hopes, with 2024 expectations at their highest since April (61bps) as 2025 is now pricing in four full rate-cuts...

Source: Bloomberg
Which sent gold higher, the dollar lower and Treasury yields plunging (led by the short-end)...

Source: Bloomberg
... BUT the picture was very different in equity market land...

Source: Bloomberg
...where Nasdaq was monkeyhammered while Small Caps surged. The Dow clung to unchanged as the S&P ended off around 1% weighed down by Tech obviously...

That RTY/NDX spread was over 600bps at its peak today. By the close it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002...

Source: Bloomberg
...and oddly, breadth was crazy positive despite the ugliness as the reverse MAG7 trade struck hard...

388 members of the S&P currently trading up on the day vs 111 in the red (top 5 breadth day of the year).

TSLA tumbled on robotaxi-delays talk...

NVDA stalled at its previous record close and dropped over 5%...

However, as Goldman's traders noted, as big as today's moves are, they hardly register on long-term charts...

Source: Bloomberg
But, the NDX/RTY pair does remain at a key support level for now...

Source: Bloomberg
It has been 48 days since all the Mag7 names closed red on the same day, the longest streak in > 10 years.

Moves felt huge today (and they are), but important to keep some context (h/t Bartlett):

• NDX -2.2% ... back to where it was trading on Friday (7/5)
• NVDA -5% ... back to where it was trading on Monday (7/8)
• Semis -4% ... back to where they were trading Friday (7/5)
• AAPL -3% ... back to where it was trading on Monday (7/8)
• NDX/RTY -5% ... top 3 biggest move in spread in last 5 years, but just back to where the spread was in mid-June (6/24)

Finally, before we leave stocks, volumes on Goldman's trading desk were tracking higher +27% vs the 20dma and index trading leading the way w/ ETF’s capturing 31% of the overall tape.
Both LOs and HFs much better for sale.

• LO supply concentrated in mainly Tech + Hcare, vs buying Discretionary names and macro products.
• HF’s sellers of every sector expect Indust. and Cons Discretionary (covers) with supply most concentrated across Tech.

There was plenty of activity in other asset classes too...
The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal on the dovishness back to pre-June Payrolls lows...

Source: Bloomberg
..helped lower by alleged BOJ intervention to strengthen the yen...

Source: Bloomberg
Gold soared back near record highs with spot prices topping $2400 once again...

Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices managed gains too with WTI back up to $83...

Source: Bloomberg
And Powell and Biden better hope that oil prices (and thus gas prices) start coming down soon or today's CPI may be overwhelmed...

Source: Bloomberg