Silver + lead, page-109

NA has many Ag producers. Asx is exclusively developers with mkr not yet out of c+m mode, unless you count s32.

that is the big cause of difference you see between watchlists. Bc producer valuations rise the longer Ag prices are higher than last qtr even if Ag doesnt break out further technically

developers are basically more leverage than operators but they tend to move later unless they are the biggest like svl here or discovery on tsx

its why experienced PM investors often buy gold producers long before they start buying silver devcos - bc gold generally moves before or similar to silver at start of PM bull and producers gen move up more than devcos early on.

as for Diggers. Its more for discovery stories.

If the story hasnt materially changed for past 3 yrs - its not going to standout against an i88 or even a new gold producer thats go a 2x output ramp

I see people banging on about fresh drill results and geopolitical risk.

Neither of these are likely to be sustainable drivers of either BML sp or the global silver price - unless the news was so massive it changed the space permanently - and thats very low% likelihood

people buy devcos with large existing resource bases bc they are super cheap leverage that you have a high certainty will become more valuable if the relevant commodity price rises appreciably

but esp. once they have 10+ yrs drilling its unlikely they then find a gamechanger fresh drill result at a project

not impossible - but it takes a lot to change the overall value represented by the company

if you are in bml (or svl, ard, ivr, mma etc) nearly all your eggs are betting on Ag prices moving sustainedly higher and then risk appetite for developer exposures driving the sp higher (geopolitical issued almost never result in sustained higher PM prices. The Ukraine invasion was a classic pop and drop) What drives PM prices higher is rising US DEBT/GDP. Hence US recessions generally drive major surges and post recession higher trend price levels bc they printmore $$ to get thru and out of recession

And for Ag another factor is now industrial demand - for the first time in my life thats actually now a part driver of Ag pricing. But investor demand is still king = gold = US debt/gdp)

so far weve seen higher Ag - but not yet seen the big lift in developer sps.

Outside of the handling of the CR or BML taking mkt walletshare thats not a bml specific thing.

Its a sector and overall stock market thing.

So while some put this on BML specifically - its only sort of half true. More like 20% really. Even with all the best mgt, timing, IR and yes luck- I give 0% chance BML would be above ~20-25c atm - given same fundamentals and mkt conditions.

what bml can do- whats in its power to change - is mkt turnover.

That reflects mkt awareness and walletshare - and the fact bml only gets 10-20% of the $turnover value vs ard and ivr most days when there is a bid for asx Ag devcos is what the company is responsible for addressing.

that mkt share is where a Diggers showing can help.

But there are more cost effective better ways to achieve market impact.

So as long as BML is doing something better instead in next month im fine with the decision.

like i said - this is when they need to be paddling flat out from an investor outreach view

its usually too late to do it once a breakout starts bc market has already chosen their dance partners

frankly they should be having a whale of a time telling the story at the moment - the Ag price action is perfect for BML's lower risk type of story
bc investors will be increasingly thinking Ag 10yr trend price is us30+ - not us100+ which would send you toward svl