住友商事株式会社 - Sumitomo Shoji Kabushiki Geisha, page-115

Just want to add a couple of data points to the above - from Grant's Tweet

Chart 1
- Source Exante Data
- Note the 2023 line gradient vs 2024 - imports appear to be accelerating month over month.
- Full year import numbers at 1M for 2023 - 2024 already tracking well above this - ie 2023 same point (May) saw cumulative at ~300kt, 2024 450kt - that is 50% more so will the year land at 50% more - ie 1.5Mtpa imports - what happens next year, the year after (look at 2021 675kt vs 2023 1Mt)



Two data points from CloudCap's Epic -
https://macrocloud.substack.com/p/small-boats-creating-large-waves?r=130xhb&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

2023 Price of Fluorspar in USD shows $430
China production (internal consumption) is at 5,700ktpa so If China are importing 1Mtpa on top of this where is it coming from when you look at production across the rest of the world.



https://www.pricepedia.it/en/magazine/article/2024/05/13/fluorine-industry-the-criticality-of-fluorspar/
Another data point shows Fluorspar prices - specifically Hydrofluoric Acid in Europe v China - two price points - E480 vs E380



So we have 3 data points for price
- US$480 - AUD $710
- E480 - AUD $774
- E380 - AUD $664

Adding these two data points in we get the following low end production value based on 670ktpa processed ore (size of Nokeng facility).
$890 AUD was from the Fastmarkets figures projecting US$600 to US$700.


- China Fluorspar imports are increasing year on year - whether increase in demand maintaining current production no. or static demand & internal production numbers dropping off, what's important is these are imports from the rest of the world where current production is only about 3-4Mtpa above China internal production of 5.7Mtpa. So 1Mtpa additional demand with current rate of increase this year tracking to be 50% more (1.5Mtpa) - this would be a good indicator of a serious impending supply constraint.
- Exante data shows a big jump last year to 1Mtpa - this genie won't be put back in the bottle with demand in EVs accelerating in China & add in data centre build's who will be scheduling their chip production runs. Demand is going only one way for both China imports & growth in other market economies - what happens when everyone realizes all at once that there is not enough hydroflouric acid supply - particularly when there are not that many shovel ready projects to speak of. The projection data on this in the pfs will be really interesting - where will the Fluorspar price land with this serious projected supply/demand imbalance/deficit.

Aside from the above - I had a look at Lycopodium's website & found that they were the engineering group who produced a PFS for St Lawrence Fluorspar facility in Canada.
This looks like it has subsequently been updated -
LINK to PFS updated by Roscoe Postle in 2023 - they use US$500/t baseline

Pre-Tax Cash flow $21M-$36M CAD per year ($23M to $39M AUD).