1. Russia is in the Top 4 producers in the world of coal, gas, & oil.
Since Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine on 24.2.22, & the consequent sanctions later in 2022, against most Russian fossil fuel imports etc. by major western etc. democracies,
geopolitical considerations are very important when examining likely price movements in coal, gas, & oil (which had major price increases, of course, after the invasion).
The International Criminal Court has already ruled that Russia has committed "Terrorist" acts in Ukraine (with, possibly, more legal actions in the future, of claims that Russia is commting "genocide"- if it meets the legal definition of "genocide").
The EU Parliament has already voted that Russia Is a State Sponsor of Terrorism.
The war in Ukraine, & Ukraine's fierce resistance, is therefore a major factor in the geopolitical influences on fossil fuel prices.
2. The EU J. Borrell 26.6.24 said
"Our sanctions have already significantlyweakened the Russian economyand are helping prevent Putin from accomplishing his plans to destroy Ukraine.To amplify these efforts, the European Union agreed yesterday on a newsanctions package, which for the first time targets one of Russia’s major sources of revenue, its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business.
The measures will prohibit the use of EU port infrastructure to re-load Russian LNG from one vessel to another, a practice known as trans-shipment. They will also sanction new Russian LNG projects by cutting off the delivery of EU goods, technology, and services. It will make their completion more difficult and costly.
Halting Russian LNG re-exports
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has been steadily weaning itself off Russian fossil fuels. Already in 2022, we banned all coal and most crude oil imports. EU member states have also slashed imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds, from 45% of all gas imports in 2021, to 15% of EU gas imports in 2023.
Despite these efforts, Russian gas has recently been making a quiet comeback, with Russian gas creeping up to 18% of EU imports in the first months of 2024. This uptick was largely driven by a growing inflow of Russian LNG. Of this Russian LNG reaching the EU, more than 20% is being re-exported to other parts of the world. This practice runs counter to the EU's goal to curb, as much as possible, the revenues the Kremlin derives from its energy exports to fund its war, and made new targeted sanctions necessary.
We expect that the ban on trans-shipments will have no repercussions on the EU’s security of supply, nor on the price of LNG on the global market, because Russia's LNG production is currently only a fraction of the global supply. The ban will however deal a blow to Russia's purse.
This is because Russian LNG terminals are located in the Arctic. Russia, therefore, uses specialised icebreakers to transfer LNG to warmer waters, where it is reloaded onto bigger ships. Until now, most of this activity has taken place in EU ports. Once the new sanctions enter into force, the Russian icebreakers will need to sail much longer distances to reach the next suitable facility to transfer the LNG into bigger ships. Consequently, they will face much higher operational costs (estimated to be up to 75% higher), and the volume of LNG effectively transported from Yamal, in the Arctic sea, to international clients will be reduced...".
(20min delay)