$2 PARTY, page-11403

The analysis is clear. Allow me to explain. I will go long pre-market this morning then short to a level that might be unheard of based on price-action. The confidence from the last half investor results amongst the executive team showed through very clearly.

Point 1: Bad debts don't happen overnight. ANZ is a heavily skewed part of the portfolio. For context, I studied the history of how credit losses eventuate, not dissimilar to 07/08 GFC, that was on a different scale. Perhaps I used too many commas in that last sentence. But that's ok. Just trying to get my point across. Making a conscious decision to use Full Stops now. When the whole financial system on a global scale is ready to collapse. That is definitely next level.

Point 2: Balance Sheet. The way they articulated the way their structure is positioned, it is not exactly the sensitivity that makes business sense. Any risk, fear, panic etc. We will see a run for the hills. We all know that the markets are driven by fear and greed. I would make the point from my study of history that fear strikes much harder, much more quickly, basically when your livelihood is taken from you, pure survival.

Point 3: Questions asked of management, with Larry as co-founder not even answering the tough questions by sell-side analysts. Questions that are core to the business operations, profitability, free cash flow, dividends, capital gains. Wow I was actually somewhat surprised by the lack of competence by management. Perhaps they're just taking it easy collecting their remuneration being somewhat in a privileged position because they can politic their way out of those tough questions. Unfortunately, I've seen it all too much in life.

Which is where the short comes in. Top 20 holders at ~35%. Not the most confidence inspiring. High probability short all the way through to Full Year results release.