From the companies own presentation, it seems the margin between the fourth and second is negligible. looks like there is only 5000t in it.
If this upgrade takes VMS to second place then it will increase the Tin resource from 71000T to around somewhere between 7600T and 95000T, an increase in the range of 10-30%.
The amount of resource upgrade won't be as influential on the SP as the bragging rights being 2nd place. Makes for excellent media, and Hamish won't be shy in letting the world know about it.
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