PAA 0.00% 17.0¢ pharmaust limited

Ann: Investor Briefings & Webinar Notice, page-67

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    Interesting but estimating uptake of treatment is fraught with error. Your point of life extension increasing revenue is true and a happy outcome for both patient and investor (and patient investors). I think a more reliable guide is the former SoC Relyvrio's sales. They were expected to exceed 1 billion pa in the US alone but while beginning well, ultimately fell short due to lack of efficacy. If PAA demonstrates similar effect as Phase 1 demonstrated, then I expect US sales to be circa 1 - 1.2 billion pa. If so I think BP would apply an earnings multiple equal to half the exclusivity period (3.5 times). This would value the company between 3.5 - 4.2 USD. This opinion is based on the upcoming study demonstrating slowing of disease progression by greater than 30%.
 
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