Living in hope, page-57

Two you forgot to add here which should be close to landing / getting an update on:

• Samsung binding offtake (was announced Aug 2023 and was due by 10 Jul 24 - see below)
• US$150m DFC loan (not to be confused with the DOE loan above - was meant to drop by end of June incl. $60m drawdown - see below)

Personally, I'm watching for the above two items to drop plus one more item being the most important - the Tesla 8k AAM ratification (was targeted for within 6mo of the AAM plant coming online in mid-Feb, so 9-Aug is the date to watch - see below).

Be great if company had something to announce between now and next Thurs (Qtrly results), but at worst we'll get some update then on all 3 items. DOE funding or Stage 2 Vidalia is a plus but will just be a step toward FID. I'm hopeful that the radio silence is due to them doing some bilateral funding/offtake deal with Tesla or a big Japanese battery player that funds Vidalia all the way to Stage 2 (without requiring aa further dilutive equity raise from us shareholders).

My nervousness is that the company has another 2-3 quarters max of cash (at recent cash burn rate) before it is basically insolvent - it will either need to raise equity again or hope that the cash from Vidalia AAM negates cash drain at Balama. My rough numbers say Vidalia should be generating $20-40m free cash p.a. at 11k output (2-4k profit per t of AAM) but it's hard to tell because there is no price visibility into what Tesla/Syr have agreed re that 4yr fixed price offtake. One can only hope that given it was struck in Dec-21 when graphite pricing was high, the price was high.

From Aug23 announcement Samsung:
Under the MOU, Syrah and SDI will continue testing and qualifying Vidalia AAM and use commercially reasonable efforts to finalise, by no later than 10 July 2024, a binding offtake agreement for up to 10ktpa AAM from Vidalia commencing from 2026, utilising a floating price mechanism, upon Vidalia’s expansion to 45ktpa AAM production capacity. Both parties will continue to co-operate and expand volumes to support the growing EV market.

From Mar-24 qtrly DFC loan;
Syrah is targeting signing of a binding DFC loan agreement and first disbursement of the DFC loan by the end of the June 2024 quarter, subject to completion of all financing documents and receipt of DFC management approval, Syrah and Twigg Board approvals, and approvals to be issued by all relevant Government of Mozambique entities. The Company expects to seek an initial disbursement, which is currently estimated to be ~US$60 million, following execution of the loan agreement and satisfaction of all conditions precedent.

From Feb-24 AAM commissioning announcement:
Ramping up production rates to the 11.25kpta AAM design capacity, targeting 80% within six months and full capacity within 18 months from commencement