Ann: Telix Q2 2024 Revenue/Business Highlights, Guidance Upgrade, page-47

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blizy

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18/07/24

20:22

Post #: 74818974
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Originally posted by Compounder50: ↑

Your post annoys me but after re-evaluation I think you might be right.

The market likes to value Telix on a multiple of 8 which if you take 750m x 8 = 6 billion dollar market cap or pretty much where we are at $19 a share

This part pisses me off because the market isn’t paying for the growth potential of future assets. I can sit here all day/night banging the table about it but the market is right.

And if the market is going to price it like this then we will probably need to wait until the major medium term catalyst are announced, being:
-pixclara approval (Dec 2024?)
-zircaix approval (Nov 2024?)
-Eu illuccix approval (Nov 2024?)
-Asia illuccix approval (June 2025?)

So the consideration is what will happen between now and sales of a new product/product in a new country ?

US elections/ overall market turbulence ( November period)

Addition to the ASX100 (September?)

Interest rate cuts (November?)

When will we start to see meaningful numbers after approvals?

Pixclara sales if approved: maybe Q1 2025?

Zircaix sales if approved: maybe Q1 2025?

EU illuccix sales if approved: maybe Q1 2025?

Asia illuccix sales if approved: maybe Q3 2025?

Speculated quarterly revenue by Q2 2025 if the above works out= 350 AUD million which should put us at around $40 a share or 12 billion $ market cap

So a long winded thesis but I expect short to medium term chop at around $20 then an explosive move upward

Am I personally a seller tomorrow or near term? No because I can’t find or think of another stock that I can hold with large size that gives me much confidence of another 100% gain in 12 months

Will I continue to accumulate a massive oversized position if we see a silly drop during the wait/market turbulence? Yes

This is all an opinion so do your own research.

I’d love to hear the thoughts of others on the above

Cheers C50

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Further to your valid comment about the 8 times, looked up this. TLX should be in the bottom paragraph category with its long pipeline. Im guessing these multiples are exclusive for Nasdaq listings haha

TLX Price at posting: $19.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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