This article about the general shape of a "bubble" was published in Forbes Magazine about 10 years ago:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/01/28/according-to-many-famous-investors-u-s-stocks-are-in-a-bubble/
Taking the idealised, generic "bubble pattern" graph from that article (red line and captions) and superimposing DroneShield's 6-month share price graph (blue line and date labels), I would be concerned that we're in bear-trap territory:
I suspect that the current rally is driven by those that sold in a hurry at a loss over the last couple of days now fearing that they will miss out on the rally and "return to 'normal'".
I bought a small parcel on the pull-back on Wednesday, but I'm cautious for the following reasons:
- If the action was triggered on Wednesday by a short trader taking a position, there's no reason to believe that they are going to do it only once. They had every opportunity to reload by buying back on Wednesday afternoon and during the day yesterday.
- The quarterly shortly to be released is a potential catalyst for a further sell-off, or amplifier of another short sell-off.
- The half-yearly to be released next month is also a potential catalyst/amplifier.
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