reasons to believe, page-2

I've taken a look at as I thought surely at these prices there must be some value. However, I couldn't find it.

FY11 earnings after tax and one off charges will be 0 cps or thereabouts or about 7.5 cps before one off charges.

FY12 earnings after tax (if you believe management that they can earn $30M per half EBITA that they have targeted for 2nd half FY11 and extrapolate that for FY12) will be about 15.5cps.

Give them a generous 9 times earnings and that gets you to around the share price as it is today. Given the risks of changing their business model for painting which requires the customer to pay more earlier I think giving them 9 times earnings is a bit risky. Plus I don't like it when companies rework prior years earnings which result in lower earnings in already reported periods and higher earnings in years to come. Seems a bit too convenient.

Would like to hear alternate views to this....