it’s purely speculation and some bush maths, but here is my guess
3 months;
A bit into Q4, I am going assume by now full trial enrollment and no issues with the trial and it’s still progressing.
worstcase;
trial stops = $0.20c
midcase;
my assumption above = $0.50c - $1.00
bestcase;
1 or 2x licensing agreements have landed. See 6 months lookahead
6 months;
Start of new year, assume that trial is still going and extra licensing agreement landed.
worstcase;
trial stops = $0.2c
midcase;
1x new licensing agreement has landed. 2x as lucrative as the Advanz deal, $300m milestone payments and some kind of tiered royalties. 2x current share price, potentially $1.50
bestcase;
2x new licensing agreements, assume won’t double twice over so maybe circa $2.00. This would be approx. $1.1b market cap. I think pretty respectable and still underpriced a bit for a potential milestone payment runway of circa $1b alone (assuming similar structure to advanz deal with China and US and are slightly larger)
12 months;July next year assume data has dropped from trial.
worstcase;
inconsistent findings with eGFR, have to battle for surrogacy approval of ProteinUrea alone. Market shock maybe -60% in one day. Risk of losing licensing agreements, maybe. Best outcome from here would be no licensing agreements lost, FDA still allow for submission of data for approval off P3 trial.
midcase;
eGFR slope is good, need to approach FDA for presubmission meeting. Best outcome here, they are happy for accelerated approval with current data and we submit for FDA approval. Worst outcome from here is they want to wait to the end of the trial for further data. Probably a good increase in share price based off positive results, impossible to tell how much, by then an assumption of positive outcome may already be priced in. (Cite of BOT fda approval which I hold, not much increase the day of approval as it was already assumed). Maybe share price here same as after 2x licensing agreements secured?
bestcase;
eGFR slope good, we receive one or several milestone payments and we approach FDA and they allow for accelerated approval. Could be massive in this case. Perhaps circa $4 here, around $2b market cap, assume no extra dilution.
obviously, the FDA meetings occur some time period after the data readout mid next year but thought appropriate to include in 12 month look ahead.
also, this is complete guesswork, just wanted to share my thought process if people have a different perspective would be great to hear
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