Don't know if this was ever posted. If it was I apologise but it has just landed on my screen.
Here is a 12 month price recommendation released by Southern Cross Equities.
"PRR is developing CVac, a cellular therapy which is
being taken into a Phase IIb clinical trial in ovarian
cancer and which is similar to Dendreon?s recently
FDA approved Provenge cancer vaccine. We expect a
favourable result for the CVac trial in 2012, which
could lead to licensing. PRR has commercially-oriented
management. Speculative Buy recommendation and
60 cent target price maintained."
"We value PRR on the basis of a successful Phase IIb trial for CVac leading to a licensing deal for the product. Our 60 cent target price for PRR is at the lowpoint of our base case $0.63 / optimistic case $1.12 per share probabilityweighted DCF valuation range. We think that the current market capitalisation of Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) of US$5.9bn is indicative of the potential of PRR. Dendreon?s Provenge cellular therapy, which is similar to
PRR?s, gained FDA approval in late April 2010."
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Continuation of Recommendation
"Nine reasons to own PRR
1. PRR?s CVac technology performed well in Phase IIa, with a number of responders to the product being registered in late-stage ovarian cancerc patients.
2. Ovarian cancer is a large market of unmet medical need. We estimate that the ovarian cancer market is worth US$2-3bn, with around 70,000 new diagnoses per year in the US, Europe and Japan but only a 20% five year survival rate using the existing standard of care, which is chemotherapy using the BMS drug Taxol. We argue that the clinical data
for CVac to date gives the potential for the technology to eventually become the standard of care. We expect CVac will be granted an Orphan Drug designation for ovarian cancer in Europe and the US, which could provide certain market-related benefits.
3. CVac can be used for other cancer indications, with the technology having performed clinically against kidney cancer and also being theoretically useful against pancreatic, breast and lung cancer.
4. CVac is moving towards Phase III. We argue that the nearness of commercial revenues from this trial deserves a higher capitalisation than US$83m at which PRR is currently trading. We think that the current market capitalisation of Dendreon (Nasdaq, DNDN) of US$5.9bn is
indicative of the potential of PRR. Dendreon gained FDA approval for Provenge, a cellular therapy similar to CVac, in late April 2010.
5. The company is fully funded for Phase III, with $15.6m cash, in-themoney options worth $3.75m on exercise, and a convertible loan facility that is A$18.9m undrawn. We argue that this funding helps unlock the value normally accruing to a company moving towards Phase III, even
allowing for equity dilution in loan conversion.
6. Dendreon with Provenge, its prostate cancer vaccine, has helped pioneer the regulatory pathway for CVac. Dendreon has worked with the FDA to develop the protocols that would allow a cellular therapy such as CVac to be approved for clinical use.
7. PRR is a well-managed company. We have a high regard for PRR?s management led by CEO Martin Rogers. We like the commercial approach that the company has taken towards realising value from the quality science behind CVac.
8. There is potential for PRR to realise value from non-core assets,namely the Oncomab cancer antibody technology, some early stage know-how related to an orally available HPV vaccine, and a 7% shareholding in Trillium Therapeutics, a privately held Canadian biotech
company which holds technology related to a PRR-developed rheumatoid arthritis drug target. We have allowed no value for these projects in our valuation of PRR.
9. Our target price is 60 cents per share. We value PRR on the basis of a successful Phase IIb trial for CVac. Our $0.60 target price for PRR is at the lowpoint of our base case $0.63 / optimistic case $1.12 per share probability-weighted DCF valuation range. PRR currently appears
undervalued against a range of comparable companies. We assume that PRR can be re-rated by the market as the quality of the science behind CVac becomes apparent, and as CVac moves into pivotal trials"
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