Article of interest from another thread...with thanks to
@Helios11Bain and Co article
Regards
DF
Pressrelease
Global battery demand toquadruple by 2030 and OEMs must hone in on their battery strategies
Fivethemes to watch in the 2030 EV battery market
Pressrelease
Global battery demand to quadruple by 2030 and OEMsmust hone in on their battery strategies
SINGAPORE– July 17, 2024 – Globalbattery demand is expected to quadruple to 4,100 gigawatt-hour (GWh) between2023 and 2030 as electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to rise. As a result,OEMs must hone in on their battery strategies, according to a new report by Bain & Company.
“Batteriesare the single biggest cost driver for OEMs and they influence productperformance. However, ongoing flux across battery chemistries, especiallywithin lithium-ion batteries, are affecting OEM product roadmaps. OEMs acrossthe world face the critical choice of which battery type to use and whether todevelop batteries in-house or through collaboration with other companies,” saidMahadevan Seetharaman, a Bengaluru-based partner at Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing Services practice.
Thereport highlighted five themes for OEMs to watch for in the 2030 EV batterymarket:
1.Lithium-ion batteries will remain dominant for the foreseeable future
Lithium-ionbatteries have dominated the global EV battery market and will continue to doso. Emerging technologies such as solid state and high-density sodium-ion arestill in the prototype and pilot manufacturing stages and their market share isexpected to stay in the single digit range until 2030.
2. NMCand LFP will be the dominant cathode chemistries
Lithium-ironphosphate (LFP) and nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) chemistries togethercurrently make up more than 90% of lithium-ion battery sales for EVs.
In China,LFP will become more dominant due to robust demand for mass-market EVs andestablished supply chains, in addition to the emergence of LFP variants withimproved energy density (e.g., M3P and lithium manganese iron phosphate(LFMP)).
In theUSA and EU, LFP will gain share but will still be lower than that in China formultiple reasons. First, domestic LFP production is nearly nonexistent, andexisting iron and phosphorous supply chains are significantly less mature inthese regions compared to those in China. Consequently, the cost advantage ofLFP vs. NMC will be undercut by the costs of importing LFP from China. This isexacerbated by unfavorable economics of recycling vs. NMC. In addition, manycompanies are looking into no- or low-cobalt NMC variants (e.g., NMx, highlithium manganese (HLM), high-voltage mid-nickel), which would further reducethe cost advantage of LFP. Finally, import tariffs and broader geopoliticalchallenges may make LFP less suited for western OEMs looking to build up moreresilient supply chains.
3. Lithium-iontechnology will continue to decrease in cost and increase in performance
Thelithium technology stack will see major shifts across cathode chemistries,anode chemistries, cell form factors and pack architecture. OEMs are keeping aclose eye on multiple innovations such as battery integration viacell-to-chassis technology, where the battery is built directly into thestructure of the car; dry electrode manufacturing process, which reduces energyconsumption and hence, manufacturing cost; and AI-powered battery managementsystems that are increasing the longevity of batteries.
4. Solidstate and sodium ion will be the only commercialized emerging technologies by2030
Solid-statebatteries promise significantly higher energy density vs. NMC, along withimproved safety, faster charging, and potentially longer life. However, playershave only recently been able to demonstrate initial proofs of concept followingmultiple delays, and commercialization is likely three to four years away.
Sodium-ioncells promise lower cost than lithium-ion, along with improved safety and theability to operate at lower temperatures. However, energy density hashistorically been substantially lower, but there has been progress on thisfront, with prototypes delivering energy densities comparable with LFP.Multiple players have announced plans to scale production by 2025, and Bainexpects commercial availability of sodium-ion-based EVs by the first half of2025.
5. Demandfor recycling will increase
Recyclingof EV batteries is expected to grow significantly led by expansion in feedstockvolumes. A rising number of new global regulations around collection,recycling, and the use of recycled content will further promote recycling.
Batterymanufacturers and OEMs are exploring new business models such as batteryrentals, to maintain ownership of batteries and take responsibility forrecycling.
(20min delay)