Both Ganfeng and Tianqi have been decimated. Technically, there is some support at the current levels, especially if lithium prices have found their bottom in the recent lows. Beyond that, we get into the 2018/2019 lows territory which would mean another 50% drop for these giants. That would seem to occur around the end of the year. As a counter, the end of the year is also peak EV demand season and I don't think lithium prices can dive too much further into the cost curve, which has been offset higher by inflation in the past few years. We should also remember that 2023 had 40+% YOY GWh cell demand growth and it will be double digits this year also.
The logic I keep seeing on X about oversupply WITH supply expansion until 2027+ just doesn't make sense. We already know mines are closing and going into C&M all over the place including China and I doubt that's in anyone's model.
Deeper into the cost curve,
