Yea I agree. Some companies have an Equity Strategy which is released to the market. I like the idea of this, because it gives clear guidance on what they should try and achieve with such a strategy and also gives firm guidance to the board and shareholders. I think it manages expectations a lot better as well. The board doesnt need to justify their position, and shareholders don't need to ask.
In terms of the takeover, I am not opposed to it at the right price. I have had a look at the shareholder register, and dusk insiders own about 10% (im including Brett Blundy and Phil King in this) . The majority of insiders were issued shares around the IPO mark. So I think, if they wanted their money back, at the very least they would need to sell at + $2.00 to be satisfied.
Then there is the institutional investors who have bought at the 0.80 mark (im pretty sure anyway) which is Regal and Wilson Asset Management. They could agree to a takeover, at anything above that, but between them they have about 6-7%. Thai Hedge Fund is around the high $1.90 I think**, they have around 3%. There is a couple more institutional investors that I cant see, but no more than 9% combined, and they all bought around the $1.50-$2.
The rest are retail investors, and a large majority bought between $2-$4.
So I think in terms of a takeover, the only ones that would agree to a cheap* takeover would be the Investors that have bought in recent times. I don't see enough shares changing hands to achieve an off market takeover bid that would satisfy the majority of shareholders.
If they decided to do an on market takeover, a positive is that because there isn't much liquidity, the purchase would pump the price up. There was only 1 million shares on the buy side in the last couple of trading days and that has pushed the price up 42%.
So I think, in my opinion based on those assumptions, that a takeover is unlikely at the moment. I think it would only go through if the company has gotten a lot worse fundamentally (which it hasn't). It would be easy to argue against any takeover bids around current prices.
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