My experience in 20+ years mining - contractors engaged have been "hanging around a long time" as you term it for what - 18+ months or more since they were engaged/appointed. It is simple process to progress on how LSM or any LSP until funding commitments are secured - then they are pre mobilized then mobilized to site and commence works in phases. When relative large contractors are green lighted they pre mobilize then mobilize to site. Meantime these multi national companies carry on with other very diverse large projects - Nolan's is just another one currently sitting on their relative project spreads at the amber light awaiting confirmation and contract signings - mobilization which they will then allocate workforce from existing projects and secure additional workforce - which BTW is a highly favorable time to that in previous mining construction booms in Australia.
My view - Shorts - not saying they will increase - actually said last week they are maxed out around the 7% so how can they? Debt facility completion is exceptional and puts them on notice - does it? No - they have controlled this since the transition away from ECE and Insto's arrived in SPP. Haven't raised a sweat and made a motza driving out retail - accumulating at every opportunity on what they knew internally. Exceptional now that management has been very transparent since GL departed and his false FID timelines provided when he clearly knew of the large transition and the long timeline required to progress such.
Shorts will maintain their blocks - ease their way down over next couple of months and in doing so will get out easy their 150 million position. In absence of any large sustained buying pressure which could change however there has been no evidence as yet. Shorts/insto's will then participate in the equity - adding to their large accumulation/paper profits (under entities undisclosed) at an overall substantial discount to fair value that they manipulated - then they will reverse strategy and push the SP north.
You can not understand it given your disgust with shorts - whom are the Insto's that are needed for projects such as Nolan's - without them they do not progress - juniors/exploration companies are fledglings - not BHP/RIO and the like that just poor monies into new projects. The likes of ARU need Insto's more than ever in absence of past Chinese monies that aided some project developments. Insto's prey and seek out such worthy projects/companies (especially with high SOI) - engage in obscure activities - all for the common goal - money/profit and lots of it. Frustrating yes - I prefer to understand it and await for the profits in years ahead without the stress - these same insto's will be pushing the SP north when it suits them just as they can push them low when it suits them. The whole FID closure also will mark the shorting wind down - no guarantee they wont have another crack later with a lot more SOI and lenders available - that will depend on ARU project delivery on time - budget and processing/science confirmation - our offtakes provide some insurance and projected shortfalls in supply - then again have a look at Lynas short position growing rapidly since Gina and ARF arrived as large holders - Lynas are victims of current low pricing and Western Gov initiatives - regulations on tarrifs that have not yet commenced - Lynas sit on 500 million cash and 1000T of NdPr stockpile which is growing - they are cashed - no debt - no stress they can stockpile a % of production and wait for the tarrifs to arrive - the shortfalls in ex China supply.
Anyway these are happy days - spoil the moment with your great dislike of shorts - lucky you are not a PLS holder - BTW what do you think they are doing there - exactly the same - shorting - accumulating/paper profiteering on low lithium pricing waiting for a rebound for which they will be the first to know when that may occur - until then they do not raise a sweat - unfortunately lithium refining near all takes place in China as well - one up are ARU with mine to oxide production YET ever thought what may happen if China blocked lithium exports or heavy RE exports and the flow on effect to global renewables industries - what use is NdPr if there are short supply to no heavies available for magnet production - or no lithium, cobalt etc for EV batteries the no or very limited Nd Pr is required - ARU are insulated from such bar 20% of production - nothing is ever as simple as one thinks or wants to believe.
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15.5¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $371.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
15.5¢ | 16.0¢ | 15.5¢ | $446.2K | 2.874M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
62 | 2695095 | 15.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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16.0¢ | 2036367 | 21 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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56 | 2528739 | 0.155 |
59 | 2030693 | 0.150 |
20 | 754557 | 0.145 |
22 | 2137917 | 0.140 |
7 | 798050 | 0.135 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.160 | 1493089 | 18 |
0.165 | 1371896 | 37 |
0.170 | 892306 | 20 |
0.175 | 840897 | 13 |
0.180 | 979945 | 23 |
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