Ann: Second Quarter 2024 Report, page-12

I see you actually do post your sentiment. At least that isn't Buy - lol consistency is important.

I wasn't born in Australia but moved here and became a citizen. I have long held the view that we have an identity crisis. We want to be liked and we almost want to play into the Larrikin banner.

So what do we do we claim we want to be green and we adopt as many woke ideals as the failed state of the USA can offer.

We even get our government to tell the world we want to stop mining filthy Coal, Oil and gas and whilst we are at it I am not sure that iron ore is that clean either. We have AGM's with woke agendas telling us we need to stop the oil and gas industry. After meeting the audience including the agenda promoters actually get into their Ute or SUV and drive away on that hated fuel. Some of us idiots , myself included , buy LG or other such batteries and they now reside in a warehouse somewhere in Australia as they cannot be returned as Korea wont accept them and we cannot recycle them.

I don't blame the board of directors. Its easy to value an Australian company - Just tell me what the fully franked dividend will be and the chances of that dividend growing. The higher the woke dislike the higher the dividend will have to be.

So Meg and Co look at their portfolio - They have to wait until 2026 for Scarborough to generate income and until then it costs cash flow. Thank goodness Sangamar is now producing. However even Morningstar sees flat earnings over the next decade.

Then along comes this offer - Probably dragged into the boardroom by a few outside players who say that Woodside ( Otherwise known as Dogside) is a suitable partner. Maybe it is Bectel - Refer this comment on the call - We have a strong relationship with Bechtel as the EPC contractor for our Pluto Train 2 development in Western Australia and have been very pleased with the progress to date.

After all that is how opportunities arise. So they do the numbers and it works. They cringe over the fact that every investor ( probably including the large Superfunds) all tell them - you are a cash cow keep sending the money until we have transitioned to electricity from the sun. Most of us having to live underground so we don't freeze at night with small portable Lithium Ion battery packs that can kill you if the battery catches fire.

So they do it and guess what the cringeworthy investors do everything that is expected of them. They suddenly realise that all the upside on dividends from 2026 is gone. The large superfunds become a bit more cautious as now it looks like they will have to defend their holding of an Oil and Gas stock for longer. Its not their money its OPM ( Other people money) so lets lighten our holding - that is consistent with our policy.

Well Meg , I Think, scared the punters with this comment: - We have a strong focus on retaining our strong investment grade credit rating and we are committed to returning value to shareholders through the cycle. Dividend policy is 50% of net profit after tax[Clarification: 50% of net profit after tax excluding non-recurring items] but for the past decade, we've been paying out closer to 80% through the ups and downs of the commodity cycle and we recognise our shareholders do value the dividend and we'll be working hard to ensure we can continue to provide that shareholder return that the market expects from us.

So the dividends are probably going to be around AUD 1.24 per annum ( per GS Feb review) -at 80% payout or as low as AUD !.00 if they conserve to hold investment grade . So at that level at 5% required return the share price should be exactly where it is between $20 and $28. That's because we have taken out the earnings that will accrue later.:

Sad but true someone from overseas will probably come and make a $30 offer and everyone will kill each other to get to the exits. That is how the lucky country becomes the enslaved country where everything of value is owned elsewhere and the exchange rate is US 40 Cents to the AUD. Who cares what your award rate is when you cannot afford to go anywhere.

I think Meg and the board took a commercially sound decision but are trying to sell it to an audience who really don't understand and think only in a Franked dividend.

Oh - why hasn't anyone cried out that the AUD is now 66 cents when in 2012 it was over a USD or that the long term rate of 80 cents is gone - maybe blown away with all those woke ideals and NDIS scams.