AGY 39.5% 4.9¢ argosy minerals limited

Ann: Rincon Lithium Project Update, page-186

  1. 5,510 Posts.
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    The plan was for it to be used in keeping up appearances. This was essential.

    Its job is now complete, the facade is now redundant, the man behind the curtain has been revealed.

    The quarterly is not going to be pretty. What could you possibly be hoping to see in the quarterly? They have abandoned the plant. There is no possibility of internal revenue for years. All we have to look forward to in the quarterly is how much they can reduce the cash burn rate by, the current cash position (which will actually be almost a month out of date and we'll have to wait another 3 months to see just how bad it is), so we can make an estimate of how long they can sit around in hibernation for, waiting for... what are you even bothering to wait for at this point? Their inability to produce is completely clear now. Are you waiting for... an increase in lithium prices and the failure of the company to fade down the memory hole so they can raise capital at 1.5c to build the 10,000TPA which will not be completed until after the next price cycle and even then won't work anyway?

    I was very happy to get the price I did when I sold. Not selling last month would have been crazy. Not selling today is presumably the result of not processing the new information quickly enough. The situation was obvious over the last month (well, it's even worse than I expected but it was obviously severely bad, I was explaining why for about six weeks), but today, just as I said would happen when the update came, the catastrophic reality is bluntly spelled out. You don't need to predict it now, you don't need to join any dots, you just have to look at the picture and focus your eyes.

    The market has not yet absorbed just how bad this situation is. The price has only dropped about 40% today. It has a long way to go, the only question is how long it will take and how quickly it will happen. The market does tend to take some time to react to catastrophic news like this. Some holders refuse to sell because of the 'It's so much lower than what I paid now, it's not even worth selling' phenomenon, some will be in denial for some time, many don't even make an attempt at fundamental analysis and just figure that if it was "worth 8c" yesterday it must be "worth" at least 5c today, some only go on the chart, etc. But FA wins in the end, even if it takes years, and there's no value to be seen here now that they've abandoned the plant.
 
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