EV/Lithium, page-893

...over the long term, Spod price could get to US$1500/t .....well, long term is not next year, neither can you say the year after next is long term (that would be medium term).

...PLS stock reaction to a relatively good result given the circumstances, is like how WDS reacted to its positive results. It is not a vote of confidence. PLS number would get worse the next quarter because numbers are getting lower. In fact its $840 average over last 3 months surprised me, to be lower than what I had expected to be above $1k.

....At 2025 SC price of $1200/t, Bell Potter's $193m FY NPAT puts PLS PE at 46.77x, that would rise when they mark down their SC price assumption to under $1k.
Pilbara Minerals busts lithium production forecast and improves prices, as CEO desires shared infrastructure
Daniel Newell and Adrian RausoThe West Australian
Wed, 24 July 2024 9:36AM

Pilbara Minerals has smashed its full-year lithium production forecast as it celebrates a small uptick in prices for the critical battery ingredient.

The miner’s chief executive, Dale Henderson, meanwhile has lauded Federal Labor’s production tax credit scheme but stopped short of saying it will drastically improve Australia’s attractiveness for downstream processing.

Pilbara on Wednesday reported it had turned out 725,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate over the 12 months thanks to a stellar fourth quarter that lifted production 26 per cent compared to the previous three-month period.


Full-year production from its Pilgangoora operations south of Port Hedland was up 17 per cent from 2022/23 and was well above guidance of between 660,000 and 690,000t.

The miner also recorded a 4 per cent bump in prices in the final three months of the financial year to $US840/t despite the global market remaining stuck in the mire. Realised prices across the full year were $US1176/t tonne — down a spectacular 74 per cent from a year earlier.


The price of the material that’s vital to the energy transition has plunged by around 80 per cent since late 2022, and some experts see the current glut deepening through 2027. Some smaller miners — including Northern Territory play Core Lithium — have already been forced to shutter projects as prices squeeze margins.

Mr Henderson told The West Australian that over the long-term he’s anticipating the spodumene price to nearly double from current levels.

“There seems to be a strong consensus that a number around $US1500 (per tonne) or above is probably sort of the long run average,” he said.

“What we’ve been observing is supply curtailments, which sort of suggests that at these price levels it’s pretty tough for a lot of supply —that’s a positive thing given our cost position.”

Pilbara is currently weighing up building a lithium processing plant somewhere outside of China in partnership with Ganfeng.


Mr Henderson said the 10 per cent production tax credit for downstream critical minerals projects was a “good step forward”, but indicated it did not necessarily make Australia a significantly more attractive jurisdiction for Pilbara to build its plant.

“We will consider Australia and those tax credits will be part of the sum equation . . . but it’s not a straightforward evaluation,” he said.

“I think there’s opportunity to do more, of course I’d say that. The government can continue to support other things which help drive costs lower — shared infrastructure like Lumsden Point is a great initiative, so more of that.

“But also things like power, Australia’s got this incredible renewable position potential, so leveraging strengths and the government playing a role to help reduce things like power cost makes individual businesses more competitive. We are advocates for those additional steps.”

Higher production and improved prices helped Pilbara lift June quarterly revenue 58 per cent compared to the previous quarter to $305 million.

It offered its investors hope that an improved pricing environment would stretch into the new financial year, saying it had completed price reviews with two major offtake customers that would result in pricing outcomes relative to the current pricing formula. The benefits should start to flow through from this quarter.

Pilbara also said its P1000 project to achieve annual production of one million tonnes of spodumene concentrate was now 60 per cent complete. Construction remained on track and all major equipment was already on site and ready to install as it plots a September 2025 quarter ramp-up.

The company last month put a $1.2 billion price tag on ambitious plans to double production beyond that 1mtpa target.
A pre-feasibility study examined the potential additional of a whole-of-ore flotation plant that would take production to an average of 1.9mtpa in the first 10 years, with more than 2mtpa over the first six years after ramp up.
A feasibility study has been commissioned and is expected to be completed later next year. If the project gets the green light, production towards the 2mpta target could begin in 2028.
Pilbara finished the financial year with $1.6 billion cash in the bank.