forecast lower earnings - ambiguous forecast, page-3

For me the only new information in the announcement was that second half earnings will be "lower than previously expected."
The announcement also states that second half revenue will be stronger than anticipated. (although when the H1 report was released it was forecast that H2 revenue would be 15-20% above H1 which was $219 million. This is within today's actual forecast FY revenue of $480-$520 million).
I think the more disturbing issue is if revenue is higher than anticipated, but earnings are lower is AAX further reducing its margins.
As for predicting a specific increase in EBITDA for the half commencing January 2011 (not the current half), I think this is really getting into crystal ball gazing. We have recent down grades by other engineering companies e.g. CLO, MAH, VMG, of forecasts for the current half. I wouldn't put much faith in forecasts in this sector for a period that hasn't even commenced.
I think the CLO, MAH, VMG downgrades as well as the reported increase in forecast revenue but reduction in forecast earnings for AAX, suggest that intense competition is having a telling effect on margins.
Even if AAX delivers on the high end of their forecast NPAT for H2 of $7-10 million was annualised, the company would still be on a P/E above 15.
For me there are companies operating generally in more specialist areas of this sector (e.g. BOL, IMD,EHL, IDL) that present a much more compelling risk/reward proposition and are already delivering much better results.