Ann: Phase 2 Stroke Clinical Trial Update, page-30

Whichever numbers you plug into your model, it's huge regardless. Clinuvel has a drug candidate for treating stroke and I think their TAM was over US$5 billion and that's on the conservative side imo. Very similar in terms of application (ie peptide solution injected at emergency rooms or earlier and both seeking to minimise edema/inflammation to save penumbral tissue - neurons). In fact I regard Clinuvel as a peer competitor, however they have only conducted two Phase 2 trials with 6-12 patient samples. They do have an approved drug which is advantageous, but their CEO is not a risk taker and the company suffers from lack of assertiveness and using their first mover advantage whereas Argenica does not. Still, something to keep an eye on.

If the FDA asks for a larger patient sample for Phase 3, I don't think anyone here will be surprised in the slightest. The Phase 3 trial is likely to number in the 300-400 patients bracket or more. 2 years to complete with hospitals engaged in the US to gather US centric data and possibly Australia lending a hand also. Long road to go but in the interim (ie next 12 months) there should be enough good news flowing to directly impact the share price positively (partnership announcements, recruitment milestones, preclinical studies for new indications).

What's really burning a hole in my head is Argenica's strategy relating to their future, are they going to go all the way to maturity or sell the company? I'm wary of Liz Dallimore's previous experience in financial markets and analysis and I'm hoping she doesn't seek the quickest exit and sells the company for a pittance with a quick lucrative payoff for a select few. Of course if the sell price is attractive then it's all a moot point I guess...