2.8bn shares in issues roughly. Values Strike at $896m.
So, add. WE ((net of CSBP) $450 - 500m . Walyering. Max 4 year life. $80m
running total $530 to $580m
shortfall in assets supporting value $366m to $316m
Hard to assign value to ED1 at this stage.
Can it really be argued that a peaker power plant with no revenue until 2026, more likely 2027 relying on AEMO and Macquarie, ocean hill and the various other down at heel dogs are worth $366m? Personally I doubt that rather a lot.
I have consistently argued that Strike is worth the sum of WE and Walyering plus something for the rest remembering that there are a bunch of expensive work programs attached to the rest over the next few years.
say $650m max. Max of 23c a share but if Walyering were to water out then the number is down to 16c a share. It all hangs on W5 in my view as I still remain sceptical that there is much in W7 - if there was why all the cloak and dagger testing and carefully worded ambiguous announcements. Anyone can play at tying in a well to give credibility to a story about its health. I wonder how thoroughly RISC will be convinced by all this. In my world you need lots of data to do robust reserves reports which don’t run the risk of being given a number 1 by NSAI later in the day.
STX Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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