New Alan Kohler interview with Paul
https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/investment-news/paradigm-biopharmaceuticals-the-path-forward/153742paywalled but pretty sure there's a free trial available.
Here's the intro..
Alan Kohler here, and I'm talking to Paul Rennie, the managing director of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals, which has a drug that they hope will solve or at least help with osteoarthritis, in particular, in the knees. Now, I spoke to Paul five years ago, late inDecember, 2019. At that point, the share price was above $3 and it peaked at $3.90 in January, 2020. It's currently under 30 cents, 28 cents. So, it's been a miserable five years for investors. Obviously 2020 was just before the pandemic, so the first blow was the pandemic and they just never recovered from that. So obviously the first question for Paul was what happened, because it's been a terrible ride. When I spoke to Paul last time, five years ago, they were just approaching the FDA to get approval to begin phase three trials, and five years later they're still doing it and he says they've got documentation in front of the FDA now, and they're hoping to get this approval in the next few weeks, so we'll see.
The phase three trials, if they get the tick from the FDA will take two years. Firstly, they may or may not get the tick from the FDA, and secondly, the phase three trials might not pan out so clearly even at 28 cents it's a speculative stock. It was certainly speculative at three bucks, that's for sure. They're burning through a tonne of cash. The latest quarterly for the March quarter shows R&D burn of $13 million. They got a $7 million tax incentive grant from the government, but still they're chewing through it. They've got $26 million in the bank, and the phase three trial, if they get approval, will cost something like $50 million. So, they're clearly going to have to raise some more, or Paul's preference, he says, is to partner the phase three trials with somebody else, so they would fund it.
Now, I mean, who knows what that will end up with in terms of Paradigm's share of the drug at the end or even if they can get a partner. So, look, this is highly speculative. The thing about this drug though is that the gain, the win will be huge. If they actually get through all this and get an osteoarthritis drug on the market that resolves pain and, according to Paul, actually rebuilds some of the cartilage and bone, then the amount of money to be made on it would be enormous. It wouldn't possibly be as big as Ozempic or something, but it'd be certainly a big deal. So, it's speculative, but with a big potential gain at the end. But unfortunately, those who thought it was a good idea back five years ago and bought the stock then have done very badly.
Here he is, Paul Rennie, the managing director of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals.
(20min delay)