as soon as i calculate the study by using my model, it loses its magic. i chose the base case and applied the other numbers according to rigi. the pfs says that 'capital costs funded with 100% equity (i.e., no financing costs assumed)'. i still modeled the financing of the project with 50% debt and 50% cr. the capex for 25kt is currently 11x of their current market capitalization. the pfs also assumes 100% ownership. if i apply the estimated carbonate price from fastmarkets (14,500 usd/t) to the pfs figures, i get an npv after tax of 128m usd (irr after tax of 9.2%).
regarding gln, if we assume a phased approach and a total capex for stage 2 of 428m for ~21kt lce (118m for 5,400t) and subtract the already ~40% completed stage 1, we get an open capex of ~360m usd. this corresponds to 7.4x of gln's current market capitalization. gln is superior in terms of raw numbers. so far it has passed the mathematical stress test against every other company. just my opinion. no financial advice. always do your own research.
GLN Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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