Is it the usual play or something more sinister?
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Last week I wrote that we are coming closer towards the pointy end of making a bottom towards the end of July. We still have few days to go. I have been talking about this low since mid-may, saying we will top end of May and bottom end of July. But that was based on "normal" play. What I mean by normal is that general markets, even if they are not increasing, they are not in big drop mode. In my weekly report last weekend, I wrote that general markets are easing, may get into correction - drop of 10+%. The good play would be pullback - 2/5% drop. As of yesterday, SP 500 has nearly dropped 5% from its high. So we are at a crucial juncture. If we drop more in general markets, I feel the July end bottom we may have to wait. Markets to stabilise before we feel we have bottomed.
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In mid-May when I wrote what the bottom would look like, initially I wrote that a 30/40% from its high. Few weeks back I revised that saying the drop could be closer towards 50% for some stocks. SLX has come down from 675 to 450, exactly 33% drop. So back to 675 would be 50% gain. Incredible, just in few weeks. But its also in track with what I was thinking, in range of 30/40%. Why such a big drop? U sector is volatile and these rises and falls are not unusual. For long termers, I feel macro is still good. But I follow price action, trading patterns, so my play is slightly different. Its individual risk/reward, there is no right or wrong.
One other thing I have been writing is that CCJ will drop to 45 - saying that over 2 months. Yesterday it reached 43.57. Yesterday it closed at 44.58. It needs to hold here, otherwise, 39/40 for CCJ is in play. It will drag down most U stocks with it. So lets hope it holds.
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SLX had a very good rise since March. Its given back a lot, but much better than say last year. It just shows that most U stocks are not immune to the vagaries of the sector. Hopefully we are getting closer towards bottom, maybe next week, but general markets have to behave. All the best.
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Last
$4.55 |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.077B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$4.55 | $4.58 | $4.51 | $2.640M | 580.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 2509 | $4.54 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$4.57 | 3655 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 509 | 4.540 |
2 | 2306 | 4.530 |
2 | 2306 | 4.520 |
3 | 7306 | 4.510 |
5 | 15176 | 4.500 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.570 | 3655 | 1 |
4.580 | 7070 | 3 |
4.590 | 4481 | 3 |
4.600 | 2303 | 2 |
4.610 | 386 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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SLX (ASX) Chart |