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Ann: Telix Successfully Prices A$650M Convertible Bonds, page-72

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nathan1984

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26/07/24

21:47

Post #: 74939510
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Originally posted by ajostu: ↑

Well I think the hypothesis that CB has his eyes on more acquisitions is not unfounded.

But let's assume not. Let's assume it's just to accelerate the current program. Again: R&D is currently running (annualised) at about 200m, if Zircaix comes on line as expected then you can easily imagine the company could afford 400m in two years time. So they've effectively raised three years of R&D up front. How are they going to spend it?

One of the questions I ask myself is which critical path issues can be solved by throwing money at them and which are more difficult. Let's pick a trial, say IPAX-II. This is recruiting at 5 locations. Given more money, would it have been feasible to open at more locations, or there are limitations (getting personnel with the right expertise, availability of trial subjects) that mean that this trial is going as quickly as reasonably achievable? Are there diminishing returns?

As an aside, I'd love to know how Prostact Global is recruiting so far, because they're looking to hit a milestone next year and US recruitment hasn't opened yet.

Looking at the trial list there are a number of areas (eg bladder cancer) where the Phase I has been finished so it would make sense to get Phase II/III going as hard as possible. I'd always worked on the basis that some of these therapy trials wouldn't clear Ph II/III for at least another 4-5 years; it made sense that this would be the next stage after the three imaging products and 591. Maybe they've decided that's too slow.

I would speculate that another area that would benefit from hitting the afterburners would be... STARBURST. This is the trial where they're trying TLX250 for imaging a wide range of cancers. But... therapy follow imaging... so maybe if that could be expanded/ accelerated it would have the double whammy of opening up the imaging market even more and opening up opportunities for therapy. I still think that this is the trial that could, long term, be the most transformative for the company, and in my amateur opinion is the one I'd like to see results for the soonest.

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Appreciate this educated read and contribution, Thankyou.

In adding to your view about transformative agents for the company, I do believe that the 153sm for pain management of bone metastases could be huge if successful and commercial.

153Sm-DOTMP is a novel investigational kit-based bone-seeking targeted radiopharmaceutical that uses a “next-generation” chelating agent to deliver a proprietary formulation of Samarium-153 radioisotope. With two major potential applications – pain management of bone metastases and osteosarcoma therapy, including in paediatric patients

TLX Price at posting: $19.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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