Its Over, page-23032

....Buy And Hold - Better for Longer?

If you invested $10,000 in Ford $F exactly 25 years ago, you'd have $8,014 today (dividends included). Not bad!

https://x.com/Barchart/status/1817039941672562804


...if you bought the S&P500 index in Aug 2000, you would have had to wait 7 years before breaking even. And just when you thought things could get better from there, the market crashed into GFC, and you'd have to wait until Feb 2013 to reach break even again.

That's 12.5 years wait and from thereon, things got really good.

Still 12.5 years is a long time to wait. But if you had that money, say $100k placed in a interest bearing deposit of 3 pa , you would have had $144.6k by the end of that 12.5 years, 44.6% better off than the index fund earning 0% over that 12.5 years.

So if S&P500 could get to 6,000 (+10% upside) before crashing -62% to 2,300 (that Covid March 2020 low) on some major systemic event, it would take 10 years for the index to return back to 6,000 assuming it could gain 10% pa over that 10 years.

That maths can be real based on a major recession no one would want to imagine possible, even as we have the highest debt ever in history of humankind, the highest derivatives position and a most dysfunctional world arguably since WW2.