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Ann: Trading Halt, page-124

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Birchcorp

2,552 Posts.

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27/07/24

21:51

Post #: 74946706
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Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

Hi Suitsurfer. Yes I am saying what management are saying - they have advised they wish to not use that group of 4 debt facilities if possible - if enough equity can be raised - substantial debt of over US 1billion I believe they see as a burden and they would like to reduce it down where possible and deliver again what they say a 50/50 split - 600 USD million each of debt and equity OR even 700 debt and 500 equity - just examples.

Yes CAPEX has indeed increased to 1.862 billion AUD from the previous guidance of 1.6+ billion AUD - and this is after 50 million already spent from that big 121 million SPP in Dec 22 AND the 1.862 billion is inclusive of contingency BUT it is only to pre production - reference the debt milestone announcement this week. There is the additional Aus Gov 200 million debt facility available for fast implementation to full production, so I am focused on the AUD 1.862 billion which is around USD 1,213 billion.

Whilst they have a target of USD 717 million in equity - even if they hit a lofty USD 500 million - yes substantial dilution yet as I say they will simply do a share consolidation similar to 10:1 Lynas did some point down the track bringing SOI well under 1 billion - perhaps around 800 million - Paladin just did similar also etc etc. I believe this is the longer term plan - significant dilution over significant debt then a consolidation when? Management have advised they may not need draw on the 200 million Aus Gov debt facility for the fast full production implementation - well how else will they finance it - via a share consolidation and a SPP/CR perhaps.

Therefore we end up with Nolan's in full production in say 5+ years - with SOI approx 1 billion and debt at around USD 700 million (with 10 year remaining tenure at favorable rates )not the 1+ billion and stage 2 ready to implement from cashflow and future SPP/CR.

Fast forward to that 5 years above with 1 billion shares out - a plant value of ? - at full production - debt - stage 2 - cash flow arriving (tax offsets and Aus gov tax concessions) tec etc - what SP in 5 years?

If indeed as BBB (and good to hear from you) suggests 2.4 billion AUD - we see blowouts - expenditure on stage 2 PFS such as expensive drilling below the current resource at 400m depth and so on - well - time will tell as always - however I would consider we are on a very similar projectory path to that of Lynas at the same stage pre development to production - without the multiple significant challenges they endured - yet we will have quiet some debt - but over 38 years - perhaps 68 years and favorable terms - cashflow and expansions - we to will rise as Lynas did and continue to.

Example only - Consider a USD500 million equity component achieved = to AUD759 million @ 20c per share = 3.8 billion shares - total just over 6 billion SOI. Extremely big numbers however Nolan's is a very, very big and valuable asset over multi decades and one must clearly understand such to see this globally strategic RE company deliver on what we know the critical importance of ex China ESG compliant - tariff compliant. Multi countries and Tier 1 companies certainly do.

Expand

Where did management say they do not want to use the debt?

Where did they say capex increased to $1.8B - that must be disclosed?

In fact both points must be disclosed to the market as they are material in nature.

The total increase keeps at 50:50, accept now sitting at $2.3b capex, up from $1.4B. To me this suggests planned expansion values… A huge $900m more
than last month…coupled with the recent ANN on the 150% increase.

The offtake has always been circa 200%, Gina did get in early… she does know way before us.

Someone is purposely keeping this SP low, why?

I have more questions than answers, but some of your suggestions are not allowed with ASX reporting.

Last edited by Birchcorp: 27/07/24

ARU Price at posting: 17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Trading Halt, page-124

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