Ann: Gas supply agreement with Mereenie JV Partners updated, page-11

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Birchcorp

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29/07/24

09:51

Post #: 74957567
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Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

Up early over there Ski. I did post recently the contract would be extended or re negotiated - it's in neither party interest not to. Yes good, good, good, good.

As per your video and someone else shared previously - there is USD280 million combined in cost over run and standby liquidity in the DEBT package that may not be used - as per the table on page 8 dadadadaa.

What a sensational week it was to lock in "CONDITIONAL" debt package. Assuming it will go unconditional on equity completion which would be in large pretty advanced with many - well of course it is - the long advised 2815T in "advanced discussions" with EU/US - unless the other advised Asia/EU 1925T trump them with a better offering at the table.
Unfortunately last weeks sensational achievement was overshadowed by the minor SPP by many which is beyond me - totally a non issue at this stage of ARU's progress to FID - due EOY and as advised majority - if not all those whopping funds will be unused and diverted to Nolan's project development.

Only question I have whilst awaiting EOY is will the company advise individual equity completions as they occur - as they did with debt component - sure hope so and that will provide a base for SP - anticipated SP growth. However I am perhaps wishful thinking on this and all will revealed on full completion - then the final insto/retail component being the final piece - offering. What premiums - what dilution - what is the full amount achieved in equity component will be realized in good time. This is no surprise for those concerned about dilution - management have flagged this for a long time - and now it here upon us - go ARU and parties involved - dam expensive business this financing - some of the numbers in costs for debt facility - debt maintenance and other financing is quiet something - and clearly why the Aus Gov standby liquidity facility and over run facility is so important - should they use it - managements words not mine - to get to full production asap.

So close now - 5 months give or take - how will shorts play it - same tune as past or reverse sooner than later (as I have suggested the very ones accumulating at low premiums - possibly keeping sp low for further lowball equity participation/addition - then on equity - FID they let it run) in any case it will run in good time - a whole lot over coming years - with many additional external drivers - how many multiples remains to be seen and enjoyed.

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My understanding is that Equity is reluctant to disclose as they will see an increase in the SP. Notably, this is counter intuitive to them getting in at a low cost. They would be shooting themselves in the foot.

Pushing for this to happen though - hopefully can get one to disclose to support us existing shareholders.

What’s your view on the circa $500m difference in the two pages on the presentation?

ARU Price at posting: 17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Gas supply agreement with Mereenie JV Partners updated, page-11

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Ann: Gas supply agreement with Mereenie JV Partners updated, page-11

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