Central banks fear deflation more than inflation because they are less confident they can successfully deal with deflation. Therefore, they are likely to err on the side of greater-than-desired inflation rather than deflation.This means mature economies will be in no hurry to normalize monetary policy. Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the second half of 2011, the European Central Bank (ECB) in the second half of 2011, and the Bank of England in May 2011.
It also implies that, all things equal, an inflationary outcome is more likely than a deflationary one, given the biased policy against deflation.
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