After two weeks of steady downwards manipulation by shorters on extremely low volume it is worth having a look at the Clinuvel/Disc comparison. Disc up 4% last night with about $14 Million AUD of shares changing hands and proving they are far superior to Clinuvel in attracting investor interest particularly from Institutions. It can be seen that CUV is still very undervalued at $1 Billion less than their very best comparison stock in Disc Medicine with practically no valuation given to their future pipeline valuation (despite the CUV drug already having milestone FDA approval), while at Disc their whole valuation is based on the hope of some future returns from a tiny and early stage R&D pipeline which may never gain FDA approval. ASIC data shows heavy shorting and market manipulation at CUV, shorters always selling their fake shares for the lowest price possible unlike most people who try to get the best price when they sell their shares. Clinuvel with three 'Investor Relations Experts' on three continents who IMO are not selling the CUV story very well, or are simply selling it to the wrong people if they can't outperform Disc in this regard - perhaps finances used for Michelin catered Soirees in Monaco could be used better to sell the Clinuvel story in other avenues?
Clinuvel and Disc medicine are both primarily about EPP right now, however Clinuvel has much, much more happening while Disc basically runs a couple of Phase 1 and 2s. Disc even flunked a recent EPP phase 2 on the time in sunlight endpoint not being significantly increased which is what EPP is all about, while CUV is running a Phase 3 into blockbuster Vitiligo with an already FDA approved drug.
Cash burningDisc LOST $76.4 Million USD ($116 M AUD) last year running Phase 1 and 2s while CUV made last FY $31.6 Million PROFIT after taxes.
Disc: Market cap $1.75 Billion
* running some phase 1 and 2s, might have a clinical pathway forward in EPP but many years off entering that market if ever
* burning through cash which is ok for this stage, recently had no trouble raising more capital at a much higher valuation than CUV.
* Nothing in pipeline near comparable to Clinuvel pipeline
CUV:Market cap $0.75 Billion(no I didn't get those two valuations mixed up, the startup is worth over $1 Billion more than the very profitable monopoliser)
* complete monopoly in EPP market, recent update showed potential competitors struggling and CUV perhaps picking up patients from discontinued programs and completed trials. Scenesse with remarkable 95% patient retention.
* Possible expansion of number of implants in Europe to bring in line with research findings so perhaps increase to 6 from 3 or 4 (this would be huge)
* Already treating some children for EPP, hopefully will gain label expansion after further studies
*Vitiligo Phase 3 running, slated for FDA submission 2026, drug already FDA approved and SAFE for EPP. Vitiligo TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD. Compelling pictures of treatment shown and lots of centres ready to go if/when approved.
* Phase 2 running in mega blockbuster Stroke indication
* Phase 2 to begin this year in mega blockbuster Parkinson's Disease
* Europe Orphan Drug designation for VP and XP
* Assist DNA REPAIR - the implications of this are enormous for both pharmaceuticals (eg XP) and cosmetics
* Many years of long term safety data with an already FDA, EMA, TGA approved drug.
* Stated intention by CEO to be a 'household name by 01/01/2026.
* Openly talking about a tanning product, clearly a viral product if they release it and would likely give them household name status (tanning, sun protection and maybe even skin cancer preventing all in one?? sounds like a good thing - we live in hope)
* Share buyback with stated intent to redistribute capital to shareholders via this method. Clinuvel stated how the share buyback will compound their strategy of minimising share dilution with 1.5 Million shares to be repurchased. (they only have 50 Million on issue which is also pretty amazing). Only a tiny percentage of cash reserves required to fund this share buyback and they could easily extend it if required as they also mentioned.
* A tightly held and lightly traded stock, easily manipulated unfortunately compounded by some weird management decisions and waffle over the years. I see the share buyback as an opportunity to turn this around by actively supporting shareholders by restoring value. Look at Cochlear; words: BUYBACK $75 Million and ACTION, $75 Million bought back on market simply and without fuss and Cochlear shareholders happy. Clinuvel words: BUYBACK 1.5 Million shares, ACTION (4 months later) less than 50 thousand shares bought back. This needs to change, actions need to match words in support of shareholders. The pipeline is exceptional, it is time to buyback and continue the share price momentum and positivity.
Markets at all time highs, CUV at 5 year lows despite being more profitable and better positioned than ever before, ASIC data showing massive daily amounts of short activity with CUV and nearly 6% outstanding open short positions - all very easily combatted if they ever begin the share buyback in earnest and attract a bit of serious institutional investment (Disc is very good at this). A bit of insider buying would also help I believe, just to show they believe in the strategy as much as long term retail investors do.
It was mentioned just one single institutional investor buying a large number of shares back in Sep 21 was enough to take the price over $40 so things can turn very quickly - Clinuvel is much, much stronger today than it was back in Sep 21 so if they can achieve success in attracting just one similar investor then we will definitely know about it. Or perish the thought they could attract two or three such investors what would that do?
Disc have no trouble attracting investment, from Globalnewswire they said in relation to the recent $178 Million USD financing;
"The financing was led by Frazier Life Sciences and Logos Capital and includes participation from new and existing institutional investors, including Access Biotechnology, Adage Capital Partners LP, Atlas Venture, Janus Henderson Investors, OrbiMed, Paradigm BioCapital, TCGX, Wellington Management, a leading mutual fund, and others."
Simply carrying out the share buyback would be equivalent to one large investor buying a large amount of shares in my opinion. And the benefits flowing from using the tiny percentage of cash holdings to do this will carry through to the financials in every following year with less shares on issue to share profits amongst, and increased Earnings Per Share.
ALL IMO DYOR
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