Ben Packham
4–5 minutes
The AUKUS partnership will deliver a powerful new level of deterrence against Australia’s potential adversaries at a fraction of the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, a new report argues.
The Lowy Institute report warns Australia currently has too few skilled workers to build nuclear submarines at the same time as other major shipbuilding programs, but argues this and other challenges will be “bumps along the way” and the program will ultimately be a success.
Author Ross Babbage, a former head of strategic analysis at the Office of National Assessments, says many doubts expressed about the AUKUS program are “ill-informed” and driven by “outdated assumptions”, but others are real and must be addressed.
He says the agreement will deliver strategic benefits sooner than most expect – doubling the number of allied nuclear-powered submarines that can respond to a crisis in the Western Pacific by the mid-2030s, thanks to the rotational deployment of US and British nuclear submarines in Perth, and the scheduled arrival of Australia’s first Virginia-class submarine.
Dr Babbage says the program is also affordable, arguing its $268bn-$368bn price tag will average out to about $10bn a year and be about one-tenth the NDIS’s estimated cost over the next 30 years.
He warns workforce challenges will be one of the biggest AUKUS hurdles Australia will have to overcome, arguing a new maritime skills program “will be essential”.
Dr Babbage highlights the overlap between AUKUS submarine production in Adelaide with the Hunter-class frigates, a promised new class of destroyers, and seven general purpose frigates to be built in Perth.
“The numbers of naval architects, engineers, systems managers and other specialist personnel required for these projects will far exceed the workforce currently employed in the Australian maritime industry,” he warns. “This much larger skilled workforce will be needed at the same time as the Royal Australian Navy will be driving to recruit, train and retain larger numbers of skilled personnel to crew the submarines and provide onshore maintenance and support.”
Former former head of strategic analysis at the Office of National Assessments, Ross Babbage. Picture: AAP
But he says the task of assembling and testing the boats “will probably prove manageable” if training programs are significantly expanded, and Australian workers are supplemented with British and US experts.
Dr Babbage warns the navy will need to more than triple the size of its submariner workforce, from about 900 today to 3000 by the mid-2040s, to operate nuclear-powered submarines.
Dr Babbage says boats’ reactors will be built in the UK, and its weapons and communications modules will also likely be built outside Australia, he says.
The main task for the Australian workforce will be to fabricate the submarines’ hulls, “slide the modules into the submarine structure”, and integrate and test the boats’ systems, he says.
“Although there will be bumps along the way, Australia’s new submarines are likely to be delivered broadly as planned,” Dr Babbage argues.
Dr Babbage also takes an optimistic view on industrial constraints in the US and Britain that some fear could delay or even scuttle Australia’s nuclear submarine plans.
He says the failure of US shipyards to build more than 1.3 Virginia-class submarines per year in recent times, which would threaten its ability to deliver a promised three to five submarines to Australia, is being turned around with more than US$18bn investment in America’s submarine industrial base.
“It now appears likely that production targets set for the 2030s and 2040s will be met,” Dr Babbage said.
