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Ann: Q4FY24 -PPL Delivers Full Year Positive Net Profit after Tax, page-10

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madamswer

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30/07/24

16:15

Post #: 74985624
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Originally posted by madamswer ↑

Thanks for sharing.

While financial models often represent a bit of a fool's errand, in this case I think the analyst does not have too many hairy-chested assumptions behind his FY2025 forecasts, noting that:

1.) more than one-quarter of the analyst's top-line growth forecast is underwritten by the acquisition that was just made.

2.) He/she has the Gross Profit Margin compressing by a full 210bp, from 55.3% in FY2024, to $23.2% in FY2025).

3.) CoDB to rise by 17%. Even stripping out an assumed $1.5m of CoDB that comes with the acquired business), that still implies double-digit rise in CoDB in the legacy business.

So I think that the analyst's projected NPAT figure of +$2m for FY2025 is well within the realms of likelihood/probability.

And I don't think the market is today even remotely close to viewing PPL as a plus-$2mpa-NPAT-growing-at-several-tens-of-percent company.

When it does finally come round to it, I very much doubt the Enterprise Value of the company will remain at $23m, i.e.. a mere 10.5x P/E multiple.

.

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Erratum:

"2.) He/she has the Gross Profit Margin compressing by a full 210bp, from 55.3% in FY2024, to $23.2% 53.2% in FY2025"

.

PPL Price at posting: 2.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Last 2.3¢		Change -0.002(8.00%)		Mkt cap ! $26.66M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
2.3¢	2.3¢	2.3¢	$27.12K	1.179M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	670499	2.2¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.3¢	50555	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	670499	0.022
1	308573	0.021
4	475000	0.020
1	62500	0.008
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.023	50555	2
0.025	112885	2
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0.027	900000	1
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Ann: Q4FY24 -PPL Delivers Full Year Positive Net Profit after Tax, page-10

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