400 percent upside potential about to spud

Apologies if this has already been posted and numbers will have changed slightly due to raise


It is pleasing to see TEG progress on its divestment of the Cliff Head asset, given the consequent removal of the ~$22 million abandonment liability and $7.5 million of contingent payments (as well as $7.5 million of royalty payments in the longer term). We await the second key approval on condition that PGY must demonstrate to the regulator that the company has sufficient finance to cover the Cliff Head abandonment liability and commence the CCUS project. Pilot announced one significant funding partner (Samsung) on 31 Oct' 2023. We anticipate this to be resolved within the next ~6 months.
Hancock's acquisition of Warrego Energy (WGO.ASX) last year put a ~$2/GJ look- through price on 2P Reserves-weighted gas in the Perth Basin. STX, the Perth Basin pure play independent, trades on a ~$1/GJ multiple (EV/2P+2C) based on its discovered gas resource portfolio (2P Reserves and 2C Contingent Resources).
We currently value Triangle's net Booth Best Estimate Prospective Resources (140 Bcf) at $35 million ($0.017/sh) based on a risked valuation through $1/GJ (~$1/Bcf) and a risking of 75% (25% valued, i.e. 25% chance of success).
If drilling is successful and, as an example, the Best Estimate 2U gas resource is discovered, the value net to Triangle could be ~$140 million ($0.067/sh), significantly above the current enterprise value (~$37 million incl. GAS.ASX holding).