I agree *conditions* dictate environments specific to different assets, so aligned with your general proposition and in particular with regard to the items I've suggested are impediments to price appreciation.
However, price actions appears to show smart money isn't leaning into this asset post CR - volume is up a little on the weekly chart the past few months and price is sideways at best. Price is obviously under the raise which generally shows underlying systemic weakness.
Here are a couple of risks to consider.
China economic slump means industrial Silver and Lead prices suffer. Lead is obviously the foundation of the BML business case.
Market liquidity remains ok, but if that picture changes, then finance optionality becomes very slim and in particular if China's slump worsens. Some people are very focused the US debt position, but forget the Chinese unproductive debt is a mammoth drag - something to do with a impure capital allocation system.
Lead prices have reverted within the range because of Chinese issue. Dr Copper is in a Bear phase.
US and geopolitical instability. November poses a potentially significant turning point for the US and geopolitical landscape and consequently global economy. Some see this a catalyst for PMs, but the flip side is eviscerated economic consumption and higher inflation as a result of ideologically, victimhood driven policies.
A couple of months ago the picture looked better because lead looked like it might break out of the range. The silver pump is moderated by the industrial slow down, which is potentially the reason why silver miners and proxy's have not performed despite paper doing ok.
I suspect we might get a divergence in the PM space. Gold continues up post the cuts and Silver sideways at best.
(20min delay)