back in your den bears, page-25

cuppa

It was pointed out to me by Bob Hoye, many moons ago, that when silver out performed gold, then it was basically a sell signal for precious metals.

I don't have the chart but someone posted a chart just recently that in fact showed that nicely.

Yes it may always be different this time and the gold/silver ratio has been closer than it is now so I guess one can argue, "at what point".

So I guess you can just take it as a caution rather than "anytime".

I know some have suggested that at some time gold will equal the Dow numerically or 1:1.

Where will they meet? Is it 5,000 for both.

Could be.

Since I believe US equities are not likely to finish its bear before 2014 and probably 2016 and some even say 2020-22 then there is plenty of time.

However, it seems to me that if that is the case then it is still too much for a continual bull in precious metals without a bear or pause in between.

It used be be suggested that equities and commodities worked in oppposition but that seeems not necessarily to be the case in recent times.

Equities topped in 2007 and the worst was done in 2008.

Commodities topped in 2008 and had a huge fall.

The huge bear in commodities have been followed by a huge bull.

Both commodity movements down and up are in the area of all time records and surely this suggests some sort of non trending for a while!

But records are made to be broken I guess, and if it is the end of the world as we know it then anything can happen.

I do doubt it is the end of the world despite calls for such, although difficulties will remain for some years and the worst may still lie ahead.