article in the australian, page-2

There are critics who doubt the industry's viability, saying it has the hallmarks of a classic bubble and that China could boost production again to lower prices and kill off new entrants.

I would like to comment on the above and other similar views from various media articles.

1) China has shown its hand by reducing export quotas. It has been doing so for the last few years and has said it will continue to do so.
It must be obviously clear to REE users that surety of supply is now much more important than cheap unreliable supply, for their business viability.

2) China reports say that HREE may be in short supply for China manufacturers within 15 to 20 years and that China may become an importer of REE's. This would be supported by the fact that China is buying into o/seas companies, as an example Arafura and their failed attempt with Lynas.

3) Without doubt the REE prices will rise and overshoot, then undershoot on a pullback until they finally achieve a balance between supply/demand. There are many forces at play in this respect and so pre-guessing is impossible except to say that in the present climate there is still upward pressure.

4) I would venture to say in respect to new entrants to the REE sector that first mover advantage has significant advantage and there will be significant M & A activity in the future as 'would be' companies prove up their resources. A prime example of this is the stake Lynas has taken in Northern Uranium (which has a possible HREE resource which is in the process of being proved-up). LYC has done their due diligence and has not taken a position in NTU for the fun of it.

GL all holders and as always dyor
(I hold LYC NTU ALK AGS BTA TLS)