I cannot agree with that. People are falling over themselves to become uranium explorers while there are an increasing number of informed comments about the difference between the spot market and the contracted market.
Spot is all about speculators and uranium ETFs. Contract is long term with utilities holding reserve stocks.
There is also a disconnect between utilities and producers of U3O8 - it is called enrichment and fabrication. The utilities assign U3O8 to enrichment plants and fabricators that then have to deliver to the utilities stuff that they can actually put into their reactors. I can foresee a squeeze on enrichment/fabrication that is even harder to resolve than producing U3O8 because of the intense regulation around this and the technical complexity involved (just look at the history of Silex, for example). We now have the US banning Russian enriched supplies completely from 2028 and attempting to increase output from Paducah and other enrichment facilities.
How long does it take to establish a new enrichment facility, even if well-proven technology such as centrifuge and diffusion is used?
Cameco's reported average contract month-end price for 30/6/24 was US$79.50 and producers are doing very well with that. There is plenty of incentive at that price for explorers to transition to development once they establish measured/indicated resources.
More likely we will see over production of U3O8 because the enrichment plants cannot process enough of it.
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5400 | $7.68 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$7.69 | 652 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 5400 | 7.680 |
1 | 1306 | 7.660 |
1 | 2200 | 7.640 |
1 | 13 | 7.630 |
1 | 114 | 7.620 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.690 | 652 | 1 |
7.700 | 1176 | 3 |
7.720 | 4029 | 5 |
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7.740 | 10700 | 2 |
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