Thanks Piton - appreciate the info.
I regularly do the math and still can't come to grips with the $50 SP Takeover talk.
I took much solace from the fact that Jon has made clear references to Reata in recent discussions/presentations and his specific refernce to their value for one indication, not the multiple that we are possibly looking at.
What does that mean for a TO price? Who knows....but if I were a betting man (and I am), I can't see a scenario in the next 12 months where we would be acquired for less than $15B USD. That figure values the company at 2 times Reata, which I think is fair given the Acadia deal and ongoing revenue stream from Daybue, and the 2 (possibly soon to be 3) phase 2 successes, with the possibility of many more to come. It also fairly values the p3 risks and costs in my view.
If the FDA is kind and the P3 trials are similar in design to what was done with Trofinetide, then I think that figure is very reasonable.
Of course, bad results for Angelmans or a horribly onerous P3 trial will put a dent in that optimisim, but so far so good with Neuren.
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