The Brains Trust - 2024, page-1658

we had not one but two US Fed recessions post the oil shock and inflation of 1979-1980
the gold spike was fantastic in 1980 but ....

have a look at the figures for gold, copper and the dow once those artificial US Govt imposed recessions kicked in
copper and the dow were down for a year or two from memory and gold. well gold had a 20 year hiatus which we have now had 24 years of making up for


then tie it to the period from 2000 with the $US impact


it is an experience to go back that far and see history setting up to repeat
points to note
1975 copper almost doubled from 1975 to 1978. spike high in 1979
1980 to 1984 copper fell but all it really did was fall back to 1975 levels. the spike was over. that was all. but you would not want to be holding through that period

also 1974 was the year that kicked off that doubling in copper from 1975 to 1979. 1974 was the hammer dowm precurser. yes the hammer that starts every rebalancing back up. oversold to over bought and then fade and then rinse and repeat

gold and the dow also of interest for that period

at the moment we are basking in the sun of rate cuts

then it will be a question of where we sit on that curve from 1974 to 1984
i have my views on our current framework but easier just to let market lead the way
at the moment it is a very nice way

it is the movement down and then up that creates capital increases and volume on the hammer is the one system i have found that works
i suppose it works until it doesnt but 90% of time is fade. once i recognised that then it became easier to focus on life and family

here and now it depends on how far back down the curve we are pushed by the Fed
as i said 3 years ago the Fed remains in control of this whole show
i would love to see their control slip for a few months and get a few months of spikes in gold and then out again