Analysis of settlement - value range is 12cps - 16.5cps, page-3

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Aquanaut

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02/08/24

11:36

Post #: 75042405
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Originally posted by ValueKiwi ↑

Hey everyone,
Wow, I thought I'd get at least a little bit of feedback on my detailed analysis of the IDA settlement! I mean, come on, it's not every day you get an opportunity to discuss something that could actually make you some money!

I get it, if I had posted some juicy gossip about the Chairwoman's personal life, this board would be on fire right now with over 100 comments. But here I am, sharing a well-thought-out valuation that could benefit your portfolios, and it's crickets.

So, what's the deal? Are we here to make money or just to whinge about management all day? If you have any thoughts, questions, or even disagreements with my analysis, I'd love to hear them. Let's get some debate going!

For those who missed it, here’s a quick recap:

Valuation Range: 12.2cps - 16.6cps.

Distribution Discussion: Best case, we get a larger proportion based on sunk costs.

Tax Implications: No tax on the first $82m, and sufficient tax credits to cover the rest.

Capital Return: 10.5c to 15c back as cash over the next 3-7 months.

Remaining Assets: ~$1.7c per share value in existing assets and $10m cash for exploration (& I had suspected this was one area people would complain I was being overly conservative in my valuation assumptions!)

I’ve got a spreadsheet with all my calculations. Feel free to play around with it and share your own assumptions:Spreadsheet Link

Looking forward to some real discussion and feedback!

Cheers,
VK.

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A quick reply Kiwi - regarding the 1.7c remaining assets (excluding the $10m projected cash at bank) I do think is a little low as the price of gold is so friggin" strong and looks to move even higher. With all the focus on awards , settlements etc it's been easy to forget how much additional value this adds to the likes of Minos and the Gawler Graton gold and REE assets in general

imo
dyor
IDA Price at posting: 8.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 7.7¢		Change -0.003(3.75%)		Mkt cap ! $49.49M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.0¢	8.0¢	7.6¢	$25.31K	327.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17008	7.7¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
7.9¢	121211	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17008	0.077
3	359786	0.075
1	322020	0.074
1	6850	0.073
1	500000	0.065

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.079	121211	1
0.080	384476	6
0.082	90855	2
0.083	100000	1
0.084	206266	3

Last trade - 15.42pm 16/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

IDA (ASX) Chart

Analysis of settlement - value range is 12cps - 16.5cps, page-3

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Analysis of settlement - value range is 12cps - 16.5cps, page-3

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