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FY25 P&L Predictions, page-39

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miningnut

10,757 Posts.

2255

03/08/24

05:56

Post #: 75053617

Originally posted by Wazz101: ↑
Very nice....was hoping you might do a AISC, but wasn't expecting to see the full enchilada for a couple of weeks, if at all!

To me, the model all revolves around production and I'm trying to understand the growth factors you've applied to current production to get to 120koz. It's not entirely clear, maybe due to my unfamiliarity with your models, but I've tried to model myself, per below table.

Actual FY23 production was 37koz, so I've applied a couple of rudimentary growth factors to

1. % Au - going from 40g to 70g's- i.e an uplift of 85%
2. Capacity - say an uplift factor due to No 1 being back on line, based on No 2's production - uplift of 75%

Production FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Oz % au Gper T Uplift
1 AUD Change
2 Actual Prodn 2022 9,705 9,705
3 Actual Prodn 2023 8,341 9,512 9,671 9,489 37,013 -1.9% 0.004% 85%
4 Plant No1 uplift Grade Change
5 75% 0% 2024 14,597 16,646 16,924 16,606 64,773 0.007%
6 85% 2024 27,004 30,795 31,310 30,721 119,830

these are just numbers to try to replicate your growth factors to get to 120koz.

How do they compare to your estimates?

My thoughts are that those factors are very bullish and that these really look like the best case scenarios??

Should we look at something less favourable in terms of those growth factors? - would love if they're right, but want to get an handle on how optimistic they are.
How do the AISC's look at 80k and 100koz?

Wazz
Expand
Obviously costs will remain the same so AISC will increase proportionately with any decrease in production as per attached.

KCN Price at posting: $1.43 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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FY25 P&L Predictions, page-39

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	Production		FY	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total Oz		% au Gper T	Uplift
1	AUD								Change
2		Actual Prodn	2022				9,705	9,705
3		Actual Prodn	2023	8,341	9,512	9,671	9,489	37,013	-1.9%	0.004%	85%
4	Plant No1 uplift	Grade Change
5	75%	0%	2024	14,597	16,646	16,924	16,606	64,773		0.007%
6		85%	2024	27,004	30,795	31,310	30,721	119,830

FY25 P&L Predictions, page-39

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