Your options include:
A/ Assessing information/data/opinions/analysis from as many sources as possible to
1: establish your own expectations of potential future cost, pricing and production scenarios
2: analyse these scenarios to estimate the associated metrics like NPV and IRR for various cost profiles
3: determine costs that render the project “unviable” wrt various potential pricing and production scenarios
4: examine reasonableness of “viable”project metrics based on evidence supporting likely project costs
5: examine your scenarios wrt likelihood and assess project economic risk accordingly
6: take calculated risk-based decisions
B/ claim “too many unknowns” and wait “until the company tells us” what their estimations and modelling indicate. Claim it’s “a waste of time” to perform economic modelling because we don’t have all the detailed numbers spoon fed to us. Claim “the market is always right” and “the sp clearly tells us the company’s potential”. …etc.
afaik:
Most retail do (B) out of ignorance or incompetence.
Most retail don’t get ahead of the curve, and simply react to “shiny things” and the emotional response of share price fluctuations.
Carry on.
Imo
Dyor
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