If there is a recession in the US then we will probably see the deficit top $3tr next year from the 23/24 current estimate of $1.9tr which may end up over $2tr. I was listening to a podcast last night and one guest suggested it would go to $3.5tr to $4tr which is possible. And that is just one year - the impact of a recession would result in a few years of very high deficits such that the cumulative deficit could easily get to $10tr over a few years. That would result in the US government debt rising to over $45tr which would be circa 150% of GDP maybe higher.
A 10% fall in revenues and a 10% increase in outlays increases the deficit to over $3b while a 20% change in creases the deficit to over $4tr - both a possible scenarios.
What would happen to the POG? It’s not a question of whether it would go up but how high it would rise!
Could the US be heading for a sovereign debt crisis? If it does POG will go bonkers.
Gold and macro environment, page-101
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 108 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Add SPR (ASX) to my watchlist
 (20min delay)
|
|||||
|
Last
$1.29 |
Change
0.010(0.78%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.425B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.29 | $1.31 | $1.28 | $2.571M | 1.992M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | 59756 | $1.29 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.29 | 158219 | 26 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 14.36pm 11/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| SPR (ASX) Chart |