The Bear Room, page-217

the $2.72 price was just the peak and for a very short time. Given the amount of retail holders at that price I’m doubtful they would have had a successful book build if they went to the market then.

Further I think without shareholder approval we had to wait to the new FY to make a raise of 15% given the previous raise. They likely would have had to wait for the quarterly update anyway which they did.

$1.15 is still up 43% from the raise just 4 months. Sorry to those bleeding because they bought in on the hype - I held and didn’t sell much so I’ve seen a large swing myself - but the company is not fundamentally different to where we were 2 months back so people really should be thrilled to buy this so much cheaper than they were willing to buy it during the run up.

Price movements aside - defense is usually agnostic to a recession and more impacted by geopolitical tensions which are getting worse. I’ll keep adding more as we go down personally subject to any material updates:

Downsides:
Ending of Russian aggression in Europe
Easing of Chinese aggression/posturing around APAC
Failure to convert pipeline into sales
Cash burn in R&D with no material new products
Increased staffing gives larger cash burn downsides
SP will likely go sideways/down over the qtr without updates
Smaller management team who’ve sold all available holdings and have a track history of significant dilutive raises
Tech developments could render products obsolete

Upsides:
Possibility for large sale announcements to swing significant upside
Potentially hiring the best Engineers in Australia based on ability to reward with shares and work on cutting edge projects
Macro story sells well - early stage of C-UAS knowledge and demand is rapidly increasing
Long established as a specialized C-UAS company
Strong government support both for sales and R&D
Potential buyout down the track by large primes of tech proves to be Best-in-class
Potential genuine use cases for AI and ML based innovation