Harris now in front, page-1120

ok - almost all right ----------- 9 out of 10 correct predictions and a one 'just missed' which was a pretty iffy miss



Allan Lichtman has an impressive track record of predicting U.S. presidential election outcomes, but it's not entirely accurate to say he has correctly predicted the winner for the last 40 years without qualification. Here's a more precise summary:
1. Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of nine out of the past ten presidential elections since 1984[2].
2. His prediction system, known as the "13 Keys to the White House," was developed in 1981[2][5].
3. The one election where his prediction is disputed is the 2000 contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Lichtman predicted a Gore victory, which was correct in terms of the popular vote but not the Electoral College outcome[2][5].
4. For the 2016 election, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory. However, it's important to note that his model was explicitly designed to predict the popular vote winner, which Clinton won. After 2016, Lichtman switched to predicting the election winner rather than just the popular vote[3][5].
5. Lichtman correctly predicted Biden's victory in the 2020 election[4].
While Lichtman's record is impressive, it's not perfect or without controversy. His system has been highly accurate for most elections over the past 40 years, but there have been some nuances and adjustments to his approach, particularly regarding the distinction between predicting the popular vote and the actual election winner.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/02/...idential-election-prediction-2024-lead-digvid
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election
[3] https://inews.co.uk/news/us-political-scientist-who-win-election-3195495
[4] https://www.newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-accurately-predicted-elections-joe-biden-can-win-1927988
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House